Nuclear Capabilities

India has been a self-declared nuclear weapon state since it, along with Pakistan, conducted a publicised series of nuclear tests in May 1998. Successive Indian governments had previously maintained a policy of ambiguity on the country’s nuclear status after what appeared to be a partially successful nuclear test in 1974.

Despite its self-declared status, India is not recognised as a nuclear weapon state under the 1968 nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and has consistently declined to join the treaty as a non nuclear weapon state, arguing that it cements in place an unfair distinction between the five recognised states with nuclear weapons and the remainderthat have to forego such a capability.

India is generally assumed to have sufficient weapons grade plutonium to produce between 40 and 90 weapons, depending on the sophistication of the warhead design. Indian Government sources claim the country has developed a range of fission\ warheads and more powerful, two-stage thermonuclear devices, although some observers have expressed doubts about the reliability of the latter.

The effectiveness of a nuclear capability is largely determined by the strategic ability to deliver those assets. India currently has a number of combat aircraft (the Mirage 2000 and possible the Su-30 Mk1) which are capable of delivering a nuclear payload. It also has a developing ballistic missile programme. At present India is estimated to have 42 short and intermediate-range ballistic missiles in service capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Under the remit of Strategic Forces Command there are three strategic missile regiments, two of which are equipped with Prithvi-I and Prithvi-II short-range missiles (30 missiles in total), and one regiment which is equipped with 12 Agni-II intermediate-range missiles. The Prithvi-I is estimated to have a range of 150 kilometres, while the Prithvi-II has a range of 250 kilometres. The Agni-II is estimated to have a range of 2,000-2,500 kilometres, thereby providing access to Southern China.

Both the Prithvi-I and the Agni-II are capable of carrying a 1,000 kilogram payload, while the Prithvi-II is capable of carrying a 500 kilogram payload.

India is currently developing a new version of the Agni missile which would have a range of 3,500 kilometres. A first test flight of the new missile in July 2006 reportedly failed after the second stage of the missile failed to ignite. However, a second test conducted on 12 April 2007 off the coast of eastern India was reportedly successful. With a range of in excess of 3,500 kilometres the Agni III would provide India with the ability to strike targets as far off as Beijing and Shanghai.

A third, navalised, variant of the Prithvi missile (the Dhanush), which has a range of kilometres, is also currently under development for potential deployment with the Indian Navy. A number of analysts have suggested that this missile variant could be deployed as a means of fulfilling the Indian Government’s current interest in acquiring a sea-based element to its nuclear architecture, thereby achieving the nuclear triad.

There have also been a number of reports that India is potentially seeking to augment its allistic missile capabilities through the development of a longer range inter-continental ballistic missile with a range of 12,500 kilometres based upon the Agni missile. However, other commentators have questioned this speculation.