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Risk |
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- External sources of insecurity: India's security policies must address potential threats coming from
outside its borders. India’s security policies will need to combine economic, diplomatic and military
aspects to protect Indian society and also secure energy supply and trade routes.
- Internal sources of insecurity: Radical groups organized along ethnic, far left or religious lines are
gaining ground, especially in disadvantaged districts. These need to be closely monitored to prevent the
spread of unrest in certain regions and deter extremist attacks.
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Important Trends
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- Regional sources of instability: Although dialogue with Pakistan is ongoing, the situation in Kashmir
and the continued instability in Afghanistan and along its border with Pakistan remain a source of instability
in the region.
- Increasing exposure of energy supply to geopolitical risks: As a net energy importer, heavily
dependent on oil and with demand set to quintuple over the next 25 years, India’s energy security is a vital
part of its strategic security. India will need to continue to pursue its foreign policy of maintaining good
relations with energy producers in the Middle East, Russia, Central Asia and South-East Asia.
- Increased number of terrorist incidents: The past months have seen a number of fatal attacks carried
out in several cities including Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore. Between 2004 and mid-2008, over 4,800
people were killed in terrorist attacks, many of which were not attributed to any single group. When the
perpetrators of attacks were identified, most belonged to radical political groups. Religious radicals were
the next group of perpetrators.
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Impacts |
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- Military spending: Indian military spending has been around 3% of GDP for the past several years;
however, the last Union Budget increased defence spending by 10%. India’s military expenditure is higher
in percentage terms than many other states, including China, although in absolute terms it is less, at about
US$ 16 per capita, compared with US$ 19 in Pakistan and US$ 32 in China. Military spending is planned
to total US$ 81 billion over the period 2006 to 2020.
- Increased concerns about security: Terrorist incidents raise fears about greater insecurity and place
pressure on the police and government to prevent such attacks. As in other countries around the world,
if left unchecked, the rise of non-state actors within the state poses as great a risk as exogenous threats.
The size and diversity of India’s population make this a serious challenge if authorities are to continue to
encourage a tolerant and integrated society. However, with each attack, tensions rise and there are
greater calls for police and security services to be given greater means to track terrorists.
- Potential for greater tension between religious groups: India has known strife between its different
religious denominations in the past. As in other countries, concerns are growing about fundamentalist
movements and the potential for increased strife among different religious communities.
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