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Risk |
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- Rural populations are highly dependent on agriculture and pressures are increasing to transform
agricultural activity into a sustainable economic sector. Almost 65% of India’s population is directly
or indirectly dependent on agriculture, although it only accounts for approximately 16% of GDP.
- Despite current self-sufficiency in food production, approximately 25% of India’s population is
malnourished and lives below the poverty line.Child malnutrition is responsible not only for 22% of
India’s disease burden, but also for 50% of the 2.3 million child deaths in India each year.
- Agricultural output and rural communities face risks of changing weather patterns linked to
climate change and threats from water scarcity and quality.Water for agricultural use currently
represents 92% of renewable water resources, compared with 3% for industry and 5% for domestic use.
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Important Trends
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- Slow progress on productivity: India is second only to the US in the amount of cultivable land within
its borders (147 million hectares). However, in comparison with other high-growth economies such as
China or Brazil, its yields are lower and agricultural productivity is climbing at a slower pace. Per capita
productivity in India only rose by 7% between 1995 and 2004, compared with 25% in China.
- Increasing pressures on land: 600 million people are directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture in
India. The size of India’s rural population dependent on arable land has increased from just over 400
people per square kilometre of arable land in 1994 to nearly 500 people per square kilometre in 2003. This
trend is almost unique among fast-growing economies, most of which are seeing these figures decline.
- Climate change: Changing weather patterns linked to climate change are already manifesting themselves.
Incidents of flooding and problems of prolonged drought are on the increase. The trend towards warmer
weather in some regions means that certain pests and diseases are entering new areas.
- Increasing pressures on water: Agriculture usage accounts for 93% of India’s renewable water supply and
is depleting water tables. Other elements are increasing the pressure on water supply and quality: poorly
managed and wasteful irrigation practices; a shift to more water-intensive crops, such as horticultural
produce; industrial and domestic water usage rising from a currently low base (5% and 2%, respectively); and
changing weather patterns – rainfall is more erratic as exemplified by recent monsoon seasons.
- Malnutrition: Access to food remains a problem for certain segments of the population. India has the
highest rate of child malnutrition in the world. Existing initiatives, including meals for young school children
and food vouchers for those below the poverty line, have failed to meet targets. Schemes are not reaching
children under three, who are most at risk from disease and growth deficiencies related to malnourishment.
- Food security: Relatively high self-sufficiency and government subsidies for the poor have sheltered India
from the effects of the higher food prices seen over the past 18 months. While international prices for
processed wheat increased by as much as 67% in the first half of 2008, Indian wheat prices rose by only 7%.
- Changing consumption patterns: Nutritional patterns have changed since the 1960s, with the
successive introduction of cereals, dairy and poultry, vegetables and meat. From a nutritional and
production standpoint, this diversification is advantageous. However, this represents a shift to more
perishable goods and necessitates more sophisticated supply and retail structures to ensure both health
and safety for consumers and returns for the producers.
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Impacts |
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- Economic disparities:India’s economic growth is not benefiting rural populations as much as those
living in urban areas. Rural communities are most disadvantaged when it comes to infrastructure,
education, sanitation and healthcare.
- Disputes over access to land and land sale agreements: Given their reliance on land, rural
communities are reluctant to sell land for infrastructure development or industrial use unless they feel they
can share in some of the generated advantages.
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